پارامتریابی و ارزیابی مدل SSM_iCrop2 برای شبیه‌سازی رشد و عملکرد لوبیا (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گرگان، پردیس دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، دانشکده تولید گیاهی/ گرگان/ ایران

2 گروه زراعت/ گرگان، پردیس دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، دانشکده تولید گیاهی

3 گروه زراعت/ پردیس دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، دانشکده تولید گیاهی/ گرگان/ ایران

چکیده

به منظور مدل‌سازی مراحل رشد و عملکرد لوبیا با استفاده از آمار هواشناسی سطح کشور (دمای حداقل و حداکثر، مقدار تابش و میزان بارندگی) مطالعه‌ای در دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان در سال 1395 صورت گرفت. هدف از این مطالعه پارامتریابی و ارزیابی مدل SSM_iCrop2 برای شبیه‌سازی رشد و عملکرد لوبیای معمولی به‌ منظور بررسی اثرات عوامل آب و هوایی، خاک، مدیریت زراعی و تعیین ضرایب ژنتیکی با استفاده از زیرمدل‌های مربوط به فنولوژی، تولید و توزیع ماده خشک، روابط آب و تغییرات سطح برگ در شرایط کشور بود. برای برآورد ضرایب و ارزیابی مدل از داده‌های آزمایش‌های انجام‌شده در نقاط مختلف کشور استفاده شد. ابتدا پارامترها برآورد و سپس مدل با استفاده از یک سری داده‌های مستقل، ارزیابی شد. مقایسه مقادیر شبیه‌­سازی‌‎شده و مشاهده‌‎شده روز تا رسیدگی در پارامتریابی با RMSE، CV و r به ترتیب برابر با 14 روز، 13 درصد و 76/0 و برای عملکرد دانه به ترتیب 62 گرم در متر مربع، 20درصد و 84/0 درستی پارامترهای مورد استفاده را نشان داد. همچنین مقادیر RMSE، CV و r در ارزیابی مدل برای روز تا رسیدگی به ترتیب برابر با 8 روز، 8 درصد و 74/0 و برای عملکرد دانه به ترتیب 53 گرم در متر مربع، 19 درصد و 77/0، دقت شبیه‌­سازی مدل را تأیید نمود. بنابراین، می‌توان از مدل SSM_iCrop2 به‌­عنوان ابزار مناسبی برای بررسی سیستم‌های زراعی و تفسیر نتایج در شرایط محیطی و مدیریتی متفاوت در جهت بهبود مدیریت مزارع لوبیا در کشور استفاده نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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